The Lipstick Index: Prepare for the 2025 Recession with a Cool Mute Lip Tint
- inthinkerator
- May 16
- 7 min read
Updated: Jul 24
Looking to stock up on your favorite brands before tariff prices hit? Take a look at the best the East and West have to offer in terms of cool-toned lip glosses, tints, and balms— Etude House and Maybelline tout impressive staying power, while the subtle shine of Rom&nd and E.L.F. deliver soft color.
The Lipstick Index as an Economic Benchmark
The Lipstick Index theorizes that an increase in lip product sales may indicate an economic recession on the horizon. The reasoning for this unorthodox economic measurement is that when money is tight, buying a small, affordable treat helps consumers practice self-care and maintain their quality of life without breaking the bank.
Fascinatingly, the Lipstick Index is often erroneously attributed to Leonard Lauder, the Chairman of Estée Lauder. He’s credited with using the phrase to describe the uptick in cosmetic sales following September 11, 2001. However, Forbes reports that the earliest instance of the Lipstick Index actually comes from Professor Juliet Schor’s 1998 book The Overspent American. One might speculate that the intensity of the September 11 economic decline makes Lauder’s usage of the term more impactful in recent memory.
Given the uncertain economic situation of spring 2025, due in part to President Trump’s tariff policies, it may be time to buy yourself a new lippie. To match the gloomy predictions of most economists, I’ve compiled a review of my top 5 muted cool-pink lip tints, glosses, and balms.
We’ll be covering both Western drugstore brands like Maybelline and the most popular lip tints of K-beauty manufacturers, like Rom&nd, as a reminder that neither the Western nor Eastern hemisphere is safe from the potentially damaging effects of the tariff policies.
How to Tell if You’re Cool or Warm-Toned
Mauve, dusty rose, and soft pinks are fantastic everyday lipwear for the office, gym, and university. These cool tones are especially good for consumers with pale skin or those with cool undertones—you don’t necessarily need to be pale to have cool undertones.
A quick way to check is by looking at your wrist: people with green-leaning veins are usually considered warm-toned, while those with blueish or more purple veins are cool-toned. Generally, warm-tone individuals look better with peachy, sun-kissed makeup hues and gold jewelry, while we cool-toned folk prefer mauves and makeup with purple or blue undertones to compliment our silver accessories.
But anybody can rock a soft pink lipstick, and it’s my go-to for a polished no-makeup look. Get ready to spend less money as the economy worsens—with one last hot girl treat first. You deserve it.
My Top 5 Cool-Toned Lip Tints & Glosses
These are all products I've used for at least three months. Hiking trips, music festivals, and everyday wear and tear—these lippies have seen it all. Skim the photos to see swatches and how the color payoff lasts throughout the day. Ranked in order of my favorites.
Maybelline Super Stay Vinyl Ink: Witty
One of the most-loved Western drugstore finds for no-transfer lip color, Maybelline’s Super Stay Vinyl Ink formula was surprisingly comfortable and non-drying. It’s a high-pigment lip color that can be used to softly line lips and fill in the cupid’s bow.
Maybelline is owned by L’Oreal. Manufacturing is mainly based in Little Rock, Arkansas.
In my opinion, no lip tint is truly transferproof, but Maybelline is pretty close. The formula remains wet and tacky on your lips directly after application, but dries down to a comfortable satin finish. It didn’t feel drying or sticky.
I also really enjoyed the color: a deep, intense mauve. I find it difficult to shop for highly-saturated nude shades, as saturation typically means brighter color. In this regard, Maybelline’s Vinyl Ink in Witty did not disappoint. It’s a bit brighter than a true nude, but suitable for everyday wear nontheless.
TLDR: Great color payoff and staying power. Comfortable, non-drying formula that goes from satin to matte over time. Reapplied lip balm, but it wasn’t necessary to reapply color.
Etude House Fixing Tint: Dusty Beige
Etude House is a K-beauty favorite. The Fixing Tint is quite matte and has impressive staying power. While more subtle glosses are difficult to use for overlining or filling in your cupid’s bow, the Fixing Tint is absolutely perfect for this.
Etude is owned by AmorePacific Holdings Corp, which has key manufacturing sites in South Korea and China. Interestingly, Chief Executive Seunghwan Kim commented that the company is exploring manufacturing plants in the United States, a goal that he says has been accelerated due to the recent tariffs. AmorePacific has factories in China—currently facing a 145% tariff after the 90-day pause—making their products potentially more susceptible to price hikes in the West.
I wore this tint nearly every day in the summer of 2024, and it even survived two days of the Chicago music festival Lolapalooza. Dusty Beige is a super comfy, easy-to-wear shade that goes with nearly anything. It’s very neutral-toned and a great MLBB for my skin tone. This color is cool-leaning, but I think even warm-tone shoppers will enjoy Dusty Beige as a reliable no-smudge nude.
The formula is a bit thicker than a sheer tint, so the color is rather saturated—but not bright, allowing you to subtly shape and sculpt the edges of your pout without drawing attention to the fact that you’re wearing lipstick.
TLDR: Etude House Fixing Tint is a fantastic nude shade. Use it to softly line your lips, or swipe it all over for a blurred lip look. Matte finish. Not particularly drying, but I reapplied lip balm for comfort.
Rom&nd Juicy Lasting Tint: Bare Grape
Rom&nd is one of the most sought-after K-beauty brands, which was already more expensive to buy in the West as it’s imported. With the new tariff plans, get ready to pay even more for what’s considered a cheap drugstore buy in Asia.
Following the 90-pause President Trump announced, South Korea’s 25% tariff rate has been decreased to the blanket US tariff of 10%, according to BBC News. Rom&nd is owned by iFamily and manufacturing is based in South Korea.
Stock up on Rom&nd for the unique sheer, lightweight texture of the Juicy Lasting Tint line. After wearing this product for a few weeks, I was impressed with the comfortable formula and MLBB shade. It has some shine to it, and if you’re not familiar with lip tints, you’re missing out—they’re like sheer glosses that stain the lips, meaning the staying power is way better than a normal gloss.
My favorite shade, Bare Grape, is a soft purplish shade that melts onto your lips effortlessly for a smooth, glossy, and smudged look. While it feels initially moisturizing, it is slightly drying, and I find myself reaching for my lip balm more frequently than normal. The color is not highly pigmented, but it does have some staying power, so you’ll be rocking a subtle pop of mauve through at least two meals.
TLDR: Bare Grape and the Juicy Lasting Tint formula is a subtle, buildable formula. Decent staying power so you won’t need to reapply too often, but you will have to apply lip balm a few times throughout the day. Finish is glossy and dries down to satin.
Peripera Ink Mood Glowy Tint: Pink Youth
Rom&nd, Etude House, and Peripera are probably three of the most well-known Korean brands for lip tints and glosses. Peripera’s Ink Mood Glowy Tint has a moisturizing, comfortable texture that looks and feels very glossy. It’s not drying at all.
Peripera is a subsidiary of Clio Cosmetics. Manufacturing is based mostly in South Korea, with some facilities in European countries like Germany and Italy—all of which are covered by the 10% blanket tariff. It’s unclear to what extent PeriPera products are manufactured in Europe.
The shade Pink Youth is a brighter color than most of the other tints in this review, but I think it’s still quite wearable, particularly if you’re not going ham with the rest of your makeup. I probably wouldn’t wear it to the office, but it’s a cute choice for brunch with the girls, or if you need a quick pop of color to spruce up an outfit.
TLDR: Similar to a lip gloss and good for moisturizing the lips. While the gloss will dry down, it leaves a nice stain, so you won’t need to reapply color. Not drying, glossy finish. I used this instead of lip balm when I wanted a more saturated stain.
E.L.F. Pout Clout Lip Plumping Pen: Bust a Mauve
E.L.F’s Pout Clout Pen claims to be a three-in-one plumper, gloss, and balm. While I’m not sure what the distinction between gloss and balm is for this product, I thought it was a good lip product overall—very shiny without being sticky, buildable color, and moisturizing.
Most E.L.F products are made in China, with additional factories in Taiwan and Thailand. China’s tariff rate after the 90-day pause is currently set at 145%, while Taiwan and Thailand previously faced 32% and 36% tariffs, respectively. Tariffs for Taiwan and Thailand have since been lowered to 10%, according to the BBC. While E.L.F. is considered one of America’s leading drugstore brands, their overseas manufacturing could cause price increases as the tariff policies take effect.
The Pout Clout formula’s “plumping” effect is attributed to its light minty flavor. There’s a slight tingle, but it’s not uncomfortable or sensitizing. I wouldn’t describe the product as plumping, other than how applying color can make the appearance of your lips fuller. Personally, I dislike plumping products that rely on AHAs or other acids to produce a more prominent pout, so I was happy with the Pout Clout Pen’s capabilities.
The color—Bust a Mauve—looks almost brown when swatched, but applies as a sheer nude on the lips. It is definitely wearable for any occasion, and the most moisturizing of the tints and glosses in this review. As this product was the most lip balm-like, it also had the least staying power. You’ll definitely need to reapply several times.
TLDR: This is a wearable sheer nude with a slight minty flavor. It has little to no staying power and a glossy, moisturizing finish.
The Economics of a Hot Girl Treat
As it’s not clear yet which tariffs will go into effect and which will be lowered or rolled back, it’s difficult to predict how much President Trump’s trade policies will affect the average consumer. Regardless of the actual economic outcomes we may face, most consumers are stocking up on their favorite imported products before the 90-day pause ends.
Whether we see an economic recession or not, when times are uncertain, it’s important to keep morale high. If buying an affordable treat—like lipstick—helps you get through the workweek, it might be a worthwhile purchase. Sometimes, feeling a little bit pretty goes a long way.
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